Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.586161 3.541266 4.903045 7.057901 1.052457e+01 16.160164 2.666654e+01
2025-03-09 1.708424 2.695208 4.398247 7.805323 1.519756e+01 32.806392 8.858325e+01
2025-03-16 1.192807 2.101558 3.933479 8.441859 2.156131e+01 69.765796 3.961290e+02
2025-03-23 0.891792 1.730145 3.675414 9.536152 3.301252e+01 184.301982 4.517876e+03
2025-03-30 0.680239 1.431314 3.401564 10.576691 5.080195e+01 594.723364 1.504232e+06
2025-04-06 0.498557 1.109784 2.859903 10.218870 6.504233e+01 1743.169765 NaN
2025-04-13 0.368097 0.854655 2.344319 9.373391 7.663029e+01 5453.535767 NaN
2025-04-20 0.299484 0.732161 2.172571 10.078782 1.190575e+02 82009.455566 NaN
2025-04-27 0.256954 0.663740 2.147924 11.857106 2.302552e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.224751 0.611765 2.156017 14.283256 5.172758e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.192394 0.544653 2.050154 15.768708 1.058427e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.159213 0.460888 1.802361 15.171789 1.575379e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.129291 0.380184 1.527715 13.736940 2.040388e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.113205 0.343910 1.463600 15.205101 5.774813e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.099168 0.309794 1.386252 16.437831 1.957215e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.088828 0.286103 1.354018 18.745168 1.678795e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.079616 0.263362 1.310122 20.962974 9.240782e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.068939 0.230578 1.171305 19.958054 1.247917e+09 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.059298 0.199299 1.021841 17.910193 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.053814 0.184476 0.982456 19.386087 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.050287 0.177131 0.994784 23.349016 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.047386 0.171623 1.018828 28.974414 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.043803 0.161607 0.996024 32.471304 NaN NaN NaN